Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 2020 | 3845 | 30345 | 132 | 17 | 1062 | 1287 |
| November 01 2020 | 3960 | 30646 | 137 | 21 | 1110 | 1325 |
| November 02 2020 | 4095 | 30734 | 138 | 21 | 1154 | 1421 |
| November 03 2020 | 4225 | 31211 | 145 | 25 | 1168 | 1489 |
| November 04 2020 | 4316 | 31442 | 148 | 28 | 1174 | 1533 |
| November 05 2020 | 4556 | 31717 | 151 | 28 | 1236 | 1706 |
| November 06 2020 | 4716 | 32083 | 151 | 30 | 1274 | 1775 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 5.3 | 4.1% | 52 | 0.45% | 72 | 0.63% |
| 10-19 | 21 | 17.3 | 13% | 165 | 1.21% | 237 | 1.74% |
| 20-29 | 38 | 28.6 | 20.1% | 256 | 1.22% | 354 | 1.69% |
| 30-39 | 33 | 24.7 | 18% | 229 | 1.68% | 303 | 2.23% |
| 40-49 | 20 | 17.6 | 12.4% | 158 | 1.51% | 218 | 2.08% |
| 50-59 | 20 | 20.0 | 13.8% | 176 | 1.4% | 251 | 2% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 11.3 | 8.3% | 106 | 0.92% | 168 | 1.46% |
| 70+ | 10 | 15.0 | 10.4% | 132 | 1.26% | 172 | 1.64% |
| All ages | 160 | 139.7 | 100% | 1274 | 1.22% | 1775 | 1.7% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 2020 | 1939 | 19066 | 67 | 24 | 724 | 922 |
| November 01 2020 | 1958 | 19236 | 67 | 24 | 679 | 926 |
| November 02 2020 | 2033 | 19273 | 70 | 24 | 715 | 909 |
| November 03 2020 | 2128 | 19511 | 73 | 24 | 731 | 998 |
| November 04 2020 | 2260 | 19647 | 76 | 24 | 863 | 1045 |
| November 05 2020 | 2434 | 19779 | 79 | 26 | 901 | 1155 |
| November 06 2020 | 2604 | 19974 | 82 | 26 | 1023 | 1286 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.6 | 2.9% | 30 | 0.39% | 37 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 7.1 | 7.7% | 79 | 0.94% | 95 | 1.13% |
| 20-29 | 25 | 14.7 | 13.4% | 137 | 1.93% | 163 | 2.29% |
| 30-39 | 39 | 21.0 | 18.9% | 193 | 2.3% | 244 | 2.9% |
| 40-49 | 35 | 20.9 | 18.7% | 191 | 2.46% | 245 | 3.16% |
| 50-59 | 26 | 17.4 | 17% | 174 | 1.79% | 225 | 2.32% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 13.4 | 12.5% | 128 | 1.52% | 169 | 2.01% |
| 70+ | 15 | 8.4 | 8.9% | 91 | 1.28% | 108 | 1.52% |
| All ages | 170 | 105.6 | 100% | 1023 | 1.58% | 1286 | 1.99% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 2020 | 1281 | 12394 | 52 | 7 | 423 | 551 |
| November 01 2020 | 1320 | 12555 | 54 | 7 | 425 | 539 |
| November 02 2020 | 1388 | 12569 | 61 | 7 | 457 | 585 |
| November 03 2020 | 1424 | 12656 | 63 | 8 | 454 | 597 |
| November 04 2020 | 1494 | 12789 | 64 | 8 | 478 | 636 |
| November 05 2020 | 1586 | 12839 | 65 | 8 | 524 | 691 |
| November 06 2020 | 1685 | 13006 | 67 | 11 | 592 | 754 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 2.9 | 4.4% | 26 | 0.48% | 30 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 6.9 | 10.8% | 64 | 1.18% | 81 | 1.49% |
| 20-29 | 17 | 8.6 | 13.9% | 82 | 1.81% | 108 | 2.39% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 10.3 | 15.7% | 93 | 1.71% | 110 | 2.03% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 10.4 | 15.2% | 90 | 1.81% | 112 | 2.25% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 10.4 | 15.7% | 93 | 1.37% | 121 | 1.78% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 8.7 | 12.8% | 76 | 1.2% | 99 | 1.56% |
| 70+ | 7 | 7.9 | 11.5% | 68 | 1.07% | 96 | 1.52% |
| All ages | 99 | 66.0 | 100% | 592 | 1.31% | 754 | 1.67% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 2020 | 4550 | 32945 | 92 | 22 | 643 | 832 |
| November 01 2020 | 4608 | 33134 | 93 | 23 | 647 | 850 |
| November 02 2020 | 4635 | 33228 | 93 | 23 | 651 | 818 |
| November 03 2020 | 4740 | 33696 | 96 | 23 | 715 | 872 |
| November 04 2020 | 4910 | 34026 | 99 | 23 | 827 | 1003 |
| November 05 2020 | 5035 | 34278 | 101 | 26 | 932 | 1074 |
| November 06 2020 | 5174 | 34708 | 101 | 26 | 987 | 1190 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.7% | 17 | 0.14% | 29 | 0.25% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 11.1 | 11.1% | 110 | 0.66% | 135 | 0.82% |
| 20-29 | 36 | 20.9 | 21.8% | 215 | 1.01% | 274 | 1.29% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 13.6 | 12.8% | 126 | 0.93% | 152 | 1.12% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 14.9 | 15.7% | 155 | 1.14% | 180 | 1.32% |
| 50-59 | 24 | 17.7 | 17.4% | 172 | 1.21% | 200 | 1.41% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 10.9 | 10.8% | 107 | 0.75% | 123 | 0.87% |
| 70+ | 19 | 9.1 | 8.6% | 85 | 0.65% | 97 | 0.75% |
| All ages | 139 | 100.1 | 100% | 987 | 0.83% | 1190 | 1.01% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 2020 | 15839 | 241086 | 532 | 49 | 2718 | 3543 |
| November 01 2020 | 16011 | 242765 | 537 | 49 | 2696 | 3502 |
| November 02 2020 | 16207 | 243534 | 541 | 49 | 2652 | 3691 |
| November 03 2020 | 16768 | 244983 | 555 | 49 | 2937 | 3947 |
| November 04 2020 | 16963 | 246093 | 564 | 51 | 2837 | 3842 |
| November 05 2020 | 17295 | 246986 | 572 | 50 | 2990 | 3980 |
| November 06 2020 | 17807 | 248063 | 590 | 53 | 3247 | 4252 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 32 | 19.7 | 5.8% | 188 | 0.31% | 229 | 0.38% |
| 10-19 | 85 | 45.4 | 14.2% | 461 | 0.65% | 578 | 0.81% |
| 20-29 | 126 | 77.3 | 23.9% | 775 | 0.75% | 1018 | 0.98% |
| 30-39 | 84 | 51.3 | 15.5% | 503 | 0.66% | 689 | 0.9% |
| 40-49 | 74 | 45.3 | 13.9% | 450 | 0.69% | 587 | 0.89% |
| 50-59 | 48 | 36.4 | 11.8% | 383 | 0.58% | 523 | 0.8% |
| 60-69 | 31 | 26.4 | 7.5% | 242 | 0.44% | 315 | 0.58% |
| 70+ | 32 | 24.7 | 7.5% | 245 | 0.5% | 313 | 0.64% |
| All ages | 512 | 326.6 | 100% | 3247 | 0.59% | 4252 | 0.78% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 2020 | 225370 | 1826636 | 11374 | 2031 | 42683 | 59184 |
| November 01 2020 | 228863 | 1841205 | 11497 | 2047 | 42763 | 58749 |
| November 02 2020 | 232296 | 1846618 | 11597 | 2050 | 41818 | 58405 |
| November 03 2020 | 238067 | 1861962 | 11844 | 2102 | 43527 | 59585 |
| November 04 2020 | 244002 | 1872295 | 12087 | 2156 | 45836 | 61315 |
| November 05 2020 | 249924 | 1881813 | 12310 | 2194 | 48875 | 63824 |
| November 06 2020 | 256065 | 1896457 | 12554 | 2256 | 49754 | 65587 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 244 | 195.0 | 3.7% | 1851 | 0.29% | 2463 | 0.38% |
| 10-19 | 650 | 543.6 | 10.5% | 5204 | 0.69% | 6733 | 0.89% |
| 20-29 | 1112 | 900.9 | 17.2% | 8577 | 1.13% | 11254 | 1.49% |
| 30-39 | 999 | 819.4 | 16% | 7951 | 1.05% | 10498 | 1.39% |
| 40-49 | 983 | 780.4 | 15.1% | 7522 | 1.08% | 9906 | 1.42% |
| 50-59 | 961 | 817.9 | 16.1% | 8025 | 0.98% | 10667 | 1.31% |
| 60-69 | 638 | 570.0 | 11.3% | 5613 | 0.74% | 7497 | 0.99% |
| 70+ | 554 | 511.9 | 10.1% | 5011 | 0.78% | 6569 | 1.03% |
| All ages | 6141 | 5139.0 | 100% | 49754 | 0.85% | 65587 | 1.13% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 169.6 | 174.2 | 169.1 | 139.7 | 92.3 | 33.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 198.9 | 105.6 | 58.4 | 42.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166.7 | 66 | 37 | 40.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.7 | 81.6 | 128.8 | 100.1 | 40.9 | 26.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77.8 | 81.3 | 98 | 326.6 | 255.6 | 21.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112.6 | 89 | 148.7 | 5139 | 3879.7 | 31.2% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 10.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.43 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-27 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2214"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges